Viet Nam business optimism soars

Saturday, Nov 16, 2013 13:08

A view of HCM City by night. The city is a leading socio-economy centre in Viet Nam. -- Photo

HCM CITY (Biz Hub) — In the third quarter Viet Nam's business optimism for the next 12 months increased significantly to 64 per cent, compared to minus 12 per cent a quarter earlier.

The figures were found by new research from Grant Thornton's International Business Report (IBR). That is the highest rate recorded since 2011's second quarter.

The formula uses is "total optimistic minus total pessimistic equals the result".

Viet Nam ranked fifth in 44 surveyed economies, with New Zealand posting the same percentage.

The Philippines topped the list at 96 per cent, followed by the UAE (84 per cent), Denmark and the UK (both 76 per cent) and Peru (74 per cent),

As for others in ASEAN, the business optimism in Singapore went up from 14 per cent to 32 per cent and in Malaysia, from 16 per cent to 18 per cent.

But in Thailand, the rate was minus 28 per cent compared to 22 per cent in the previous quarter.

Outside ASEAN, emerging economies were markedly less confident.

Indian optimism fell to 57 per cent down from the previous 75 per cent; Russia from 28 per cent to 19 per cent; Turkey (6 per cent) dropped to its lowest since the financial crisis; and South Africa hit an all-time low of 18 per cent.

China, however, seemed to be one step ahead of the other major emerging nations, having fallen to a record low of 4 per cent in Q2, business optimism improved to 31 per cent in Q3.

Francesca Lagerberg, global leader of tax services at Grant Thornton, said: "The results highlight a subtle but significant shift in global economic growth patterns, with some rebalancing towards developed markets like the UK and US."

"Together these two economies accounted for a quarter of global output so any recovery should have positive repercussions around the world," he added.

The ASEAN region was less upbeat about exports than at any time since 2010. Only 10 per cent in the region expected growth in exports over the next 12 months Three previous quarters recorded 15 per cent (Q2), 21 per cent (Q1) and 25 per cent (Q4/2012).

Export expectation in Viet Nam dropped from 24 to 18 per cent; and in China from 15 per cent to 12 per cent.

Thus, elimination of tariffs is expected as a key benefit in some countries in the ASEAN Economic Community (59 per cent), such as Viet Nam (68 per cent), Singapore (64 per cent), Malaysia (62 per cent) and Thailand (54 per cent). — VNS

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