Use of econometrics in finance, an evitable trend as VN integrates: academic

Thursday, Nov 16, 2017 15:48

Prof Dr Ly Hoang Anh, principal of the HCM City Banking University

To adapt to the rapid changes in the economy, authorities should clearly understand the changes and consider and assess outside effects since Viet Nam is integrating more and more with the global economy. Viet Nam News asks Assoc Prof Dr Ly Hoang Anh, principal of the HCM City Banking University, about the effects.

What tools do we have to evaluate the effects on the Vietnamese economy?

Econometrics is considered the most effective tool to assess economic effects. Econometrics is now being used all around the world, even in developed nations. Economic assessment can be done through quantitative analysis and economic models, including macro econometrics.

According to international scientists, econometrics is one of the most useful tools to quantify what has changed in the economy and assess what effects policies have on it.

However, there are still a lot of problems - both in theory and practice – which need to be studied further for developing effective macro econometric models in Viet Nam and supporting the Party and State’s management process.

In future the HCM City Banking University will co-operate with other universities to organise an annual conference on econometrics, and this is also the first international econometric conference in Viet Nam. It will have the theme “Econometrics for Financial Applications”.

Prof Dr Ly Hoang Anh with students graduating with a degree offered in partnership with the University of Bolton in the UK.

What are the goals of the conference?

The annual econometrics conference - the first International Econometric Conference of Viet Nam (ECONVN) -- is expected to be held in the middle of January 2018.

Through the conference, we would like to exchange experiences with international scientists and help local experts update their knowledge, especially scientists, lecturers at universities and institutes for econometrics for financial applications.

Besides, the HCM City Banking University would like to make the conference as a forum to connect scientists and lecturers at Vietnamese universities and institutes with international scientists and offer a chance to local lecturers to publish their studies in international scientific magazines like Springer series (Scopus/ISI – Proceeding Index), In Conference Proceedings, Special Issue of Journal of Reliable Computing (Scopus).

Furthermore, the conference would be a starting point for the HCM City Banking University to organise other international econometrics seminars in Viet Nam annually.

Finally, ECONVN 2018 will also aim to improve research and training capabilities for the development of the Vietnamese financial and banking sector and promote integration and scientific co-operation with nations in the region and elsewhere.

How big will the international conference be?

ECONVN 2018 is expected to have 10 international speakers from the Czech Republic, Japan, Singapore, Thailand, and the US and 10 local speakers along with 150 delegates.

The presentations at the conference will focus on key themes like macro economics and the international economy; foreign exchange rates and monetary policy; capital and monetary markets; commercial banks and risk management; public and enterprise finance; accounting and auditing; asset price movements; and fluctuations and predictions.

Presentation approval and publishing will be done by the HCM City Banking University, the Banking Institute and international professional council.

Prof Dr Dr Ly Hoang Anh (right) awards graduating students their certificates.

How is econometrics applicable in the current financial situation in Viet Nam?

At present, economic information and prediction are becoming more and more important for management and operation of the economy. They are indispensable inputs for State management and policy-making offices for drafting new policies and mechanisms for managing the economy, in driving the economy through the right trajectory, in optimising all development resources, in coping with fluctuations and in stabilising the economy.

However, financial econometrics isn’t rightly or deeply understood with respect to its importance in practical applications because of resource, time and experience limitations. It means that econometrics research and implementation still face challenges and urgently require optimal contributions from economists and researchers, especially in further improvement of the estimation equation, in-depth analysis of the results of the model running and comparing with the economy in practice, and improving the predictability of the model.

ECONVN 2018 is expected to help improve research and training of human resources like lecturers and research staff. From that, we hope to contribute analysis, evaluation and prediction to the economy through the most accurate and effective econometric model.

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