HÀ NỘI — With an annual population growth rate of 0.7 per cent and urbanisation advancing at 1 per cent per year, Maybank Securities estimates that Việt Nam will need over 450,000 housing units annually.

Maybank Securities maintains a positive long-term outlook for Việt Nam's real estate market, driven by robust population growth and increasing urbanisation. According to the firm, the market is gradually emerging from a downturn cycle and is poised for a strong recovery starting in 2025.

This recovery is expected to be fuelled by two primary sources of demand, end-user needs and investment demand. Key factors, including interest rates and infrastructure development, will play crucial roles in stimulating this demand.

On the supply side, Maybank Securities anticipates significant improvements thanks to the simplification of legal procedures, supported by the enactment of new legislation. This regulatory clarity is expected to unlock previously stalled projects, aligning supply with growing demand.

Regarding interest rates, Maybank Securities believes the current environment does not pose major challenges, as mortgage payments remain manageable at a 10 per cent interest rate, ensuring affordability for buyers.

However, housing affordability remains a critical factor in determining the market’s growth trajectory.

Based on a simulation for a household with an annual income of US$24,000, assuming a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 60 per cent, a 10 per cent interest rate and a 20-year loan term, Maybank Securities estimates that an affordable home price would be around $2,500 per square metre.

This aligns with the high absorption rates recorded in this price segment, reflecting strong demand for affordable properties. As a result, new launches in HCM City and Hà Nội in 2025 are expected to start at this price point, becoming the primary driver for market recovery and sustaining absorption rates in the mid-range segment.

Maybank Securities also forecasts a real estate boom fueled by infrastructure development to extend into suburban areas and satellite cities. 

These regions are already witnessing increased activity, with proximity to new infrastructure, including highways, bridges and metro lines, becoming a key differentiator for developers looking to capitalise on the next wave of demand. — VNS