HÀ NỘI — As domestic gold prices have soared since the beginning of the year, investors are considering where to allocate their capital for maximum returns. 

The choice between gold, stocks and real estate has become increasingly complex, as each asset class presents unique opportunities and risks this year, experts have said. 

The traditional safe haven

Gold has long been regarded as a hedge against inflation and economic instability. Over the past year, rising geopolitical tensions, fluctuating global trade policies and persistent concerns over inflation have driven gold prices to record highs. 

By March, international gold prices had exceeded $3,000 per ounce, while domestic gold prices followed suit, exceeding the threshold of VNĐ100 million per tael (US$3,910.83) for the first time. 

On Friday, the spot gold price hit an all-time high of $3,086.21 earlier in the session, while SJC gold prices were quoted at VNĐ98.7 million per tael for sellers and VNĐ100.4 million for buyers. 

Gold prices have been continuously rising since late October 2023, coinciding with the eruption of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, gold expert Trần Duy Phương said at an event on investment opportunities in HCM City on March 26. 

In 2024, gold prices rose further in a low-interest rate environment, as central banks across various countries implemented interest rate cuts.

Since the end of 2024, US President Donald Trump's trade policies have continued exerting a significant influence on gold prices. 

"In 2024, gold prices surged by approximately 40 per cent. At the start of this year, retaliatory tariffs by the US, Canada, Mexico and China led to rising commodity prices, pushing inflation higher amid a low-interest rate backdrop, which has further benefitted gold prices," Phương said. 

Domestic investors are now wondering whether to purchase gold or take profits at the current price levels. 

Phương said that while gold prices are anticipated to have further upside potential in the coming year, the rate of growth will likely not match that of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025. 

He also highlighted that as prices ascend, gold may undergo correction phases, with declines of $200-250 per ounce. 

At this juncture, engaging in short-term trading poses substantial risks, particularly as global gold prices show signs of waning. Recent influences, including tariff changes and interest rate cuts, have already been priced in.

Looking ahead, adjustments are expected as trade tensions and tariff negotiations start to ease and geopolitical situations stabilise.

For investment strategies this year, Phương noted that investors who entered the market at the peak price of VNĐ100 million per tael would likely face losses if they sold at this moment. 

However, for those who did not leverage their investments, holding on may be a more prudent option. Phương advised against purchasing gold at this time and recommended waiting for a more favourable price to maximise potential returns.

A market on the rise

The Vietnamese stock market has shown impressive resilience and growth, with the VN-Index surpassing 1,300 points, signalling a robust recovery. 

Investor confidence has been bolstered by expectations of an emerging market upgrade, favourable monetary policies and strong corporate earnings.

The country’s stock market is benefitting from strong liquidity flows and positive economic growth prospects, making it an appealing option for investors. 

"Following the VN-Index's rise above 1,300 points, there has been a significant influx of capital, with several trading sessions recording values exceeding VNĐ20 trillion," said Nguyễn Thế Minh, head of the Research and Development Division at Yuanta Vietnam Securities. 

"Numerous large companies are planning to list on the stock exchange or transition from UpCoM to the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), introducing new offerings to the market and further boosting the positive momentum in the stock market."

Foreign investment has increased significantly as Việt Nam continues to position itself as a key manufacturing hub in Asia. Major industries such as technology, retail and energy have seen heightened activity, with analysts predicting further upside potential, Minh added. 

The Government’s pro-business policies, coupled with increased market transparency, have further strengthened the stock market’s attractiveness.

Despite the VN-Index experiencing an eight-week consecutive rise, there is considerable divergence among different industry sectors. 

Within each sector, individual stocks are also exhibiting significant disparities. For instance, in the real estate sector, while Vingroup's stocks, including VIC, VHM and VRE, have shown a strong performance, surging by 20-40 per cent in just a few months, many other real estate stocks have not met expectations for growth.

Signs of a real estate market recovery

Việt Nam’s real estate sector, which faced headwinds in previous years due to tightening credit and regulatory changes, is showing signs of revival in 2025. 

Several factors are contributing to this resurgence, including projected economic growth exceeding 8 per cent, a 16 per cent increase in credit availability and persistently low interest rates, said economic expert Đinh Thế Hiển.

Real estate remains a preferred asset class for long-term investors, particularly in major cities like HCM City and Hà Nội, where demand for high-end properties continues to grow.

Foreign investors are also showing renewed interest, particularly in industrial and commercial properties, as Việt Nam strengthens its role in global supply chains.

However, the recovery remains uneven. While premium developments are thriving, affordable housing projects have faced slower demand due to financing constraints and shifting buyer preferences. Additionally, concerns over speculative bubbles in certain regions persist, prompting regulatory bodies to implement stricter oversight. — BIZHUB.VN/VNS