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HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam’s stock market is likely to undergo a short-term correction after the VN-Index returned to above 1,300 points – a key resistance zone previously broken in early April following the announcement of retaliatory tariffs by the US.

Despite a sharp recovery over the past two weeks, analysts warn that the current rally could lose momentum without fresh support, particularly as profit-taking emerges and market breadth remains limited.

According to Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS) analysts, investors are now awaiting concrete outcomes from trade negotiations, especially concerning US tariff policies. With many stocks having gained 10–15 per cent from their recent lows, profit-taking pressure is building as some portfolios have only just broken even after April’s market sell-off. As the index returns to a previously volatile range, investor sentiment remains cautious. 

Head of Retail Analysis at Yuanta Securities, Nguyễn Thế Minh, said the market had fully priced in optimism around the temporary delay in tariff implementation and now lacks new upward drivers.  

He noted the recovery has been narrowly concentrated in large-cap stocks, such as those within the Vingroup ecosystem and major banks, while mid and small-cap stocks have largely lagged behind.

Minh outlined two possible scenarios for the VN-Index in the coming week. First, a wave of profit-taking early in the week could trigger a pullback to the 1,250–1,280 support zone. Second, if the selling pressure remains mild, the market could consolidate around the 1,300-point level.

From a technical perspective, many stocks are entering overbought territory, with signs of weakening liquidity. On Friday, although the VN-Index dropped nearly 12 points, trading value declined, suggesting selling pressure was not yet overwhelming, but that investor sentiment had grown more cautious.

Over the past week, the VN-Index gained 2.69 per cent, closing at 1,301.39 points. The VN30-Index rose 2.38 per cent to 1,384.44 points. 

On the northern exchange, the HNX-Index ended the week at 218.69 points, up 4.56 points or 2.1 per cent week-on-week.

Market breadth improved with notable recoveries in utilities, banking, technology, and industrial parks.

Conversely, real estate and insurance stocks showed signs of either correction or divergence. Liquidity jumped by over 31 per cent compared to the previous week, suggesting improved confidence following previous concerns over tariffs. Foreign investors were net buyers, with nearly VNĐ3 trillion (US$115.7 million) pouring into the HoSE.

However, Trần Quốc Toàn, Director of Mirae Asset’s Branch 2, emphasised that the rebound lacked breadth. Four Vingroup-related stocks alone contributed over 75 points to the VN-Index, while most mid and small-cap stocks have yet to recover to their pre-April levels. 

Many retail investors remain in the red or have just returned to break-even after panic selling during April’s sharp correction. Without proper portfolio strategies, they continue to miss out on the market’s strong rebound.

The Chief Market Strategist at VPBankS Securities, Trần Hoàng Sơn, said that while the market is in a recovery phase, expectations should be tempered. For stocks that have risen sharply but failed to break previous highs, investors should consider rebalancing rather than holding for too long. He advised focusing on familiar sectors, aligning with personal risk appetite and maintaining a clear strategy instead of following short-term trends. — VNS