HCM CITY — To survive and thrive in today’s volatile global economy, businesses must accelerate transformation, enhance competitiveness, diversify export markets, improve transparency, foster collaboration, and leverage the vast potential of the domestic market, delegates said at a forum in HCM City on Wednesday.

Speaking at the CEO Forum 2025 themed "Solutions for Businesses to Expand Market Share Amid Trade Wars,” Phạm Bình An, deputy director of the HCM City Institute for Development Studies (HIDS), provided an in-depth analysis of the ongoing shifts in the global market structure.

He noted that US policies such as reciprocal tariffs and incentives to bring manufacturing back onshore have contributed to the fragmentation of global supply chains. Strategies like “friendshoring” and “nearshoring” adopted by the US and EU are accelerating the relocation of production out of China, creating opportunities for Việt Nam. However, these shifts also expose Việt Nam to risks of being accused of “tariff evasion”, particularly in recent trade investigations.

New non-tariff barriers, including the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act (UFLPA), and stricter traceability requirements, are expected to heavily impact key export sectors such as textiles and footwear. Domestic enterprises, however, often lack the financial and managerial capacity to comply fully with these regulations, he said.

Moreover, Việt Nam’s heavy reliance on foreign direct investment (FDI) in exports limits the autonomy of domestic businesses.

Given these challenges, An stressed that domestic businesses, many of which have limited financial capacity, urgently need timely support policies to maintain production.

On the other hand, he suggested businesses to proactively strengthen compliance and traceability capabilities, and re-evaluate and reposition their target export markets.

Nguyễn Ngọc Hòa, chairman of the HCM City Union of Business Associations, echoed the concerns, citing the unprecedented challenges businesses are currently facing.

He pointed out that from 2022 to 2024, the number of businesses exiting the market steadily increased. Alarmingly, in just the first four months of 2025, the number of business closures had already reached nearly half the total for all of 2024, most of them small, micro, and medium-sized enterprises.

While export turnover in the first four months of 2025 exceeded US$102 billion, up over 10 per cent year-on-year, many key export products are at risk of having no new orders after June 2025, he said.

“Consumers are still tightening their spending. Beyond the decline in orders, what’s more concerning is the reduced access to international markets. This is eroding cash flows and threatening business survival,” Hòa said.

Meanwhile, international trade policies are changing rapidly and unpredictably, adding further uncertainty for exporters.

 

He warned that from 2026 onward, the official enforcement of CBAM is expected to drive up business costs.

Businesses will be required to invest in compliance measures such as traceability verification and environmental data systems. Firms that lack the capacity to adapt will increasingly lose competitiveness in terms of both pricing and delivery speed, he said.

To enhance the competitiveness of enterprises, Hòa emphasised the need for offering financial support policies for SMEs.

In addition, he suggested holding regular public-private forums to resolve obstacles faced by specific sectors, strengthening domestic supply chain linkages between small firms and FDI enterprises, and implementing open credit rating systems to improve access to unsecured loans.

Dr. Cấn Văn Lực, chief economist at BIDV and a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, noted that the private sector currently accounts for nearly 99 per cent of all businesses in the country, contributes over 50 per cent of GDP, and provides 82 per cent of all employment.

There are several large enterprises and corporations in key sectors that have successfully expanded internationally. However, the overall scale of domestic enterprises remains small, with limitations in competitiveness, workforce quality, technological capability, and participation in global value chains.

He stressed the importance of implementing Resolution 68-NQ/TW on private sector development, which aims to improve access to land, finance, and high-quality human resources.

Dr. Lực also advised businesses to adopt a long-term, sustainable business mindset. This includes integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) principles into corporate strategy; enhancing competitiveness through digital transformation and green innovation; maintaining legal compliance; and upholding high standards of business ethics.

Bùi Tá Hoàng Vũ, director of the HCM City Department of Industry and Trade, encouraged businesses to fully capitalise on existing free trade agreements, which remain underutilised.

From a State management perspective, he expressed hope that businesses would leverage these agreements more effectively and provide feedback to policymakers to help improve the regulatory environment.

Besides exports, Vũ called on enterprises to tap into a domestic market of over 100 million people with rising purchasing power. He also called for stronger regional linkages, from raw material sourcing zones to end markets, to strengthen domestic value chains and reduce reliance on imports.

The forum was jointly organised by Sài Gòn Giải Phóng newspaper, HUBA and HIDS. —VNS