Compiled by Vũ Hoa

HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam’s economy continued to show resilience and dynamism in the first four months of 2025, maintaining its position among the world’s fastest-growing economies, despite heightened global uncertainties.

With decisive policy actions, proactive diplomacy and strategic reform priorities, the country is now aiming for an ambitious GDP growth target of 8 per cent or more this year - a goal lawmakers and experts believe is within reach, provided key breakthroughs are implemented effectively.

According to the Ministry of Finance, Việt Nam’s socio-economic performance in April and the first four months of 2025 was marked by solid gains in domestic consumption, trade and investment. Total retail sales of consumer goods and services rose by 9.9 per cent year-on-year to VNĐ2.28 quadrillion, with tourism and hospitality revenues increasing sharply by 24.5 per cent and 14.9 per cent, respectively. Total import-export turnover reached US$275.18 billion, up 15 per cent over the same period last year, contributing to a trade surplus of $5.02 billion.

Meanwhile, 47,881 Vietnamese workers went abroad under contract during this period, reinforcing the country’s labour export resilience. Social welfare programmes also advanced, with over 200,000 houses supported under national housing schemes and 78.3 per cent of communes achieving new-style rural development standards.

These positive results came despite global headwinds - particularly the sudden announcement of reciprocal tariff measures by the US, which has affected business sentiment and trade flows around the world. Việt Nam, however, responded swiftly and proactively. The Government held 11 high-level meetings to review negotiation strategies, and General Secretary Tô Lâm engaged in direct dialogue with US President Donald Trump. As a result, Việt Nam was included in a group of six economies prioritised for bilateral discussions with the US on tax policy.

These diplomatic efforts helped maintain investor confidence and macroeconomic stability. International institutions have issued upbeat growth forecasts for Việt Nam in 2025, with the World Bank projecting 6.8 per cent, AMRO 6.6 per cent, and the UN 6.5 per cent. However, domestic policymakers are aiming higher.

Strategic ambition: growth above 8 per cent

Speaking on the sidelines of the ninth session of the 15th National Assembly on May 8, several lawmakers expressed confidence that Việt Nam can meet, or even exceed, its 8 per cent growth target for the year. Deputy Hoàng Văn Cường of Hà Nội noted that GDP growth in Q1 reached 6.93 per cent - a strong start underpinned by a balanced performance across agriculture, industry and services, along with robust budget revenue.

Nevertheless, he acknowledged that Việt Nam faces substantial external risks, particularly from US tariff policies that have already impacted export orders. The country’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped to 45.6 points in April, reflecting subdued manufacturing activity.

“The ability to meet our growth goal depends greatly on the outcome of Việt Nam–US negotiations in the next few months,” he said.

To counteract external pressure, Cường stressed the need to restructure the economy and unleash domestic growth drivers, particularly investment.

Recognising the vital role of public investment in achieving growth targets, the Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính has recently issued strong directives to resolve bottlenecks in 2,212 stalled projects, with a total capital of up to VNĐ5.9 quadrillion. Along with public investment, domestic consumption also plays a vital role, with the boost to tourism during the recent national holiday showing evidence of untapped demand, he added.

National Assembly deputies and economists have agreed that Việt Nam’s pursuit of 8 per cent growth or higher must rest on three strategic breakthroughs: institutional reform, infrastructure development and human capital.

Dr Trần Hoàng Ngân of HCM City said that reforms must focus on building a strong foundation for long-term development. “We need to go beyond headline growth figures and invest in the structures that will power a resilient, innovation-driven economy,” he said.

For institutional reform, he cited the importance of implementing Resolution 66-NQ/TW on improving legal frameworks to foster a more transparent and responsive regulatory environment. Regarding infrastructure, key national projects such as Long Thành International Airport and the North–South high-speed railway must be accelerated to unlock regional connectivity and competitiveness.

In the area of human capital, Dr Ngân called for robust policies to develop a high-quality workforce in science, technology and public services. 

The three breakthrough pillars are complemented by three strategic shifts in development thinking: streamlining public administration to serve citizens and businesses more efficiently; expanding science and technology innovation, including digital transformation and high-tech application in production; and strengthening the private sector’s role as a growth engine, particularly through support for start-ups and improved ease of doing business.

Long-term vision: toward double-digit growth

At a recent national conference organised by the Việt Nam Institute of Economics, scholars and policymakers explored longer-term ambitions for Việt Nam’s economy, including the possibility of double-digit growth in the coming decades.

Dr Đặng Xuân Thanh, Vice President of the Việt Nam Academy of Social Sciences, argued that Việt Nam must radically transform its growth model to avoid the middle-income trap.

“Science, technology and innovation must become the core of our economic strategy,” he said, calling for a modern, transparent and accountable governance framework, a strong innovation ecosystem and a creative, adaptive labour force ready for the digital era.

Other experts proposed an expansionary fiscal policy, with public investment accounting for up to 9 per cent of GDP, coupled with targeted tax incentives to stimulate spending and investment. Priority should also be given to high-tech industries, smart agriculture, logistics and sustainable tourism - areas where Việt Nam holds significant competitive edge.

Việt Nam’s growth outlook for 2025 remains optimistic, supported by solid economic fundamentals, decisive leadership, and a clear strategic vision. With continued reform, effective negotiation and collective determination from the Government, businesses and society, the nation is not only capable of achieving its 8 per cent target, but also laying the groundwork for long-term, high-quality development. — VNS