HÀ NỘI — In its latest macroeconomic update on Việt Nam, Standard Chartered Bank has adjusted its USD-VNĐ exchange rate forecast, reflecting shifts in global and regional economic conditions.

The Vietnamese đồng (VNĐ) has remained in line with broader trends in emerging market Asian currencies (EM-Asia FX) over the past three years, influenced by a strong US dollar (USD) environment.

While market volatility has remained low, external factors such as evolving trade dynamics and global economic conditions may continue to shape currency movements.

In light of these factors, Standard Chartered's Senior Economist for Thailand and Việt Nam, Tim Leelahaphan, said: “Standard Chartered has adjusted our USD-VNĐ exchange rate forecasts, raising our mid-year projection to VNĐ26,000 (previously VNĐ25,450) and our end-2025 projection to VNĐ25,700 (previously VNĐ25,000).”

“We stay cautious on the near-term economic outlook and await more details on US trade policies, given Việt Nam’s large trade surplus with the US. In response, Việt Nam has indicated its willingness to import more US agricultural products, among other items,” said Leelahaphan.

The Vietnamese Government has raised its 2025 growth target to at least 8 per cent (from 6.5-7 per cent), with a higher inflation expectation of 4.5-5 per cent to create room for monetary policy flexibility.

The stronger growth outlook could help sustain low interest rates in the short term. However, Standard Chartered expects the State Bank of Việt Nam to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in Q2 2025 in response to rising inflation. — VNS