Headquarters of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). Interest rate, credit and foreign exchange rate policies are the most important factors that will positively affect the business performance of credit institutions in 2024. — VNA/VNS Photo

A total of 86.2 per cent of credit institutions expect their profit this year to grow compared to 2023, according to the latest survey of the State Bank of Việt Nam (SBV).

Under the survey released recently, credit institutions said the overall business performance and pre-tax profit of the banking system in the first quarter of 2024 were not as good as expected. However, they expect it will be better in the second quarter of 2024 and the whole year.

According to the credit institutions, interest rate, credit and foreign exchange rate policies are the most important factors that will positively affect their business performance for the whole of this year.

Under the survey, credit institutions also predict customers' demand for banking services will improve in 2024 due to the expectation that the economy and the manufacturing industry will have positive developments, exports will gradually recover, and loan demand will be higher than deposit demand.

According to credit institutions, the good liquidity of the banking system in the first quarter of 2024 will continue in the second quarter and the whole year.

Capital mobilisation of the entire banking system is expected to increase by 3.5 per cent on average in the second quarter, and 9.9 per cent in the year, lower than the expected level of 12 per cent recorded in the previous survey.

Meanwhile, outstanding loans of the system are predicted to rise by 3.8 per cent on average in the second quarter and 13.6 per cent in the year, down 0.6 percentage points compared to the forecast of 14.2 per cent in the previous survey.

According to finance expert Nguyễn Trí Hiếu, as credit growth plays a key role in banks earning profits, the outlook for the banking industry in 2024 is expected to be more positive than last year thanks to higher credit growth.

“I think credit growth this year will improve as the world’s economy recovers and exports increase. This will create more jobs and boost consumer spending, which will help business prospects of firms become more positive, and they will have higher capital demand,” Hiếu said.

Hiếu said the Government’s fiscal policies and the SBV’s credit policies related to lowering interest rates would also drive credit growth this year. — VNS