HÀ NỘI — Global gasoline prices will not fluctuate much in 2025, according to Đoàn Quyết Tiến, an expert from the Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI).

A report by VPI shows that, in 2024, the prices of petroleum products worldwide fluctuated significantly between the first and second halves of the year.

In particular, the first half of the year witnessed a strong upward trend, with prices of petroleum products reaching a peak of US$100 per barrel in April 2024.

By the second half of 2024, prices of petroleum products had started to gradually decrease, eventually remaining at $80 per barrel.

“In 2025, world gasoline prices will not fluctuate much. The petroleum market continues to be influenced by traditional factors such as economics, politics and energy policies of large countries,” predicted Tiến.

Specifically, the fluctuation of world gasoline prices is forecast to revolve around the policy decisions of incoming US President Donald Trump. US policy can promote re-industrialisation and focus more on domestic production, to reduce dependence on the global supply chain. This may increase demand for energy consumption, especially crude oil and related products, according to Tiến.

However, the trend of increasing US fossil fuel use may be accompanied by tariff measures to protect the domestic economy. Major trading partners such as China and the BRICS bloc are expected to face pressure from new tax policies, potentially bringing back the trade war from Trump's previous term.

This pressure could reduce the growth rate of industrial production in China and India, the world's two largest production centres, thereby affecting petroleum demand.

"Fossil energy, especially oil, will still play a dominant role in global energy, especially in developing countries and industries where it is difficult to replace traditional fuels," Tiến said.

According to the International Energy Agency and OPEC, the average oil price in 2025 is forecast to fluctuate between $80 and $85 per barrel, with relative stability due to balanced supply and demand. 

Meanwhile, Tiến forecasts, global gasoline prices will average between $80 and $90 per barrel in 2025.

In the domestic market, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline ranges from VNĐ21,300 to VNĐ24,500 per litre. RON 95 gasoline prices range from VNĐ22,800 to VNĐ25,000/litre, while diesel prices range from VNĐ19,500 to VNĐ22,500 per litre.

"Price fluctuations have directly affected CPI and production costs, thereby significantly impacting the economy and people's lives," added Tiến.

Petroleum consumption to increase 

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT), petroleum consumption in 2025 is expected to increase by over 8 per cent compared to 2024.

The forecast is based on the current GDP growth rate of about 6.5-7 per cent and the target of about 7-7.5 per cent, according to National Assembly Resolution 158/2024/QH15 under the 2025 Socio-Economic Development Plan.

The MoIT recently assigned the total minimum petroleum source in 2025 to petroleum wholesalers for implementation. The total minimum allocated petroleum source in 2025 is about 29.5 million square metres/tonne (equivalent to 2.5 million square metres/tonne per month, or 7.4 million square metres/tonne per quarter).

In 2024, the total minimum source of petroleum assigned by the MoIT to key petroleum traders for implementation was 28.43 million square metres/tonne of petroleum of all types. Of this, ground petroleum, including gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and kerosene added up to 27.45 million square metres/tonne, while aviation fuel, including Jet A1 and aircraft gasoline, was 980,039 square metres/tonne.

To ensure the supply of petroleum for 2025 and maintain economic growth and living standards, the MoIT has implemented a series of solutions, directing petroleum traders to closely follow the implementation of the assigned minimum total source that has been registered by petroleum traders each quarter.

At the same time, the MoIT will also proactively produce and import petroleum to ensure an adequate supply in the domestic market. The ministry will also closely monitor the implementation of the total minimum source for key traders and closely coordinate with the Department of Industry and Trade in provinces and cities to regulate and ensure the balance of petroleum supply and demand in each area.

In 2025, the MoIT will collect opinions from Government members and urgently complete the draft Decree on petroleum business and submit it to the Government for promulgation. — VNS