Foreign trade expected to set new record this year
A sharp rise has been recorded in foreign trade over the past few months, and if this upward trend is sustained, this year’s foreign trade turnover is likely to break the record of US$732 billion set in 2022.
A sharp rise has been recorded in foreign trade over the past few months, and if this upward trend is sustained, this year’s foreign trade turnover is likely to break the record of US$732 billion set in 2022.
The last two months witnessed monthly exports and imports exceeding $70 billion. In particular, the sum was estimated at $70.11 billion in July and $70.65 billion in August.
In 2022, the trade value hit $732 billion, but none of that year’s months saw the figure reaching $70 billion.
The recovering consumption demand in key export markets of Việt Nam helped the August exports set a monthly record of $37.59 billion, compared to $36.24 billion in July.
During the first eight months of this year, overseas shipments topped $265 billion, rising 15.8 per cent year-on-year.
Meanwhile, imports have also been on the rise to serve export manufacturing. The value increased 17.7 per cent from a year earlier to $246 billion during the period.
Imports of production materials stood at $230.95 billion while consumer goods $15 billion, respectively accounting for 93.9 per cent and 6.1 cent.
As a result, Việt Nam gained a trade surplus of US$19.07 billion, statistics show.
Lê Quốc Phương, former Deputy Director of the Việt Nam Industry and Trade Information Centre under the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that together with industrial production, foreign trade was a bright sport in the eight-month economic panorama.
Notably, agricultural products and minerals made up only 12 per cent of total exports while industrial products more than 88 per cent, he noted.
The S&P Global Việt Nam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in August indicated continued increases in output and new orders, as well as eased inflationary pressure.
It stood at 52.4 points, showing strong improvement of business conditions in the middle of the third quarter.
As there are nearly four months left before the end of 2024, it’s now the peak period for domestic manufacturers to secure year-end orders. Meanwhile, those already receiving enough orders are increasing materials and workers to complete orders and deliver on schedule.
Cao Hữu Hiếu, General Director of the Việt Nam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex), said the group has gained enough orders to fulfil through the end of the third and fourth quarter of this year.
Given the signs recorded so far, the entire sector’s exports may grow 8-10 per cent this year.
During the first eight months, the sector earned approximately $28.5 billion in overseas shipments.
That includes $24.3 billion in textile and garment products, $2.92 billion in fibre and yarn, and nearly $1.2 billion in materials, respectively up 7.9 per cent, 1.3 per cent and 11.9 per cent year-on-year.
Andrew Harker, Director for Economic Indicators & Surveys at S&P Global Market Intelligence, held that inflation, with both input costs and output prices rising at much weaker rates in August, was reportedly a factor contributing to sustained new order growth. Overall, the manufacturing sector continues to enjoy a strong second half of the year.
Given the current order situation and the growth of input material imports, foreign trade is likely to go beyond the 2022 record.
If the monthly turnover of $70 billion is maintained, total exports and imports for the whole 2024 may exceed $790 billion. If some industries are unable to maintain their performance, the figure may stand at $785-786 billion. — VNS
