According to analysts, Viet Nam is likely to record an economic growth rate of 5.1 – 5.2 per cent this year, lower than the 5.5 per cent target.—Photo sgtt

HA NOI (Biz Hub)— Economic experts have warned that Viet Nam's macro-economy must be controlled with caution as the country faces an uphill task to achieve economic growth of 5.5 per cent in the context of tough economic conditions both globally and domestically.

In late June, General Statistics Office general director Do Thuc reported positive signs in the national economy in the January-June period, with GDP growth registering a quarter-on-quarter increase, while the consumer price index inched up a mere 2.4 per cent against December 2012, laying a solid foundation to keep inflation below 8 per cent this year.

The trade deficit stood at US$1.4 billion, equivalent to 2.3 per cent of exports.

The head of the Industrial Statistics Department, Pham Hong Thuy, said although the industrial production index rose by only 5.2 per cent in the first half of this year, far lower than the 9.7 per cent and 8.9 per cent in the same period of 2011 and 2010, it was a fairly positive sign in the current situation.

In addition, the industrial sales index for the manufacturing and processing sector rose 7.5 per cent from the same period last year, bringing the inventories index down to a single digit.

Nevertheless, with 4.9 per cent GDP growth in the first half of the year, the country must achieve a growth rate of at least 6 per cent in the second half in order to fulfil the goal of 5.5 per cent set by the National Assembly, which is expected to be a tough task.

The UN Economic and Social Council forecast that the world economy would only pick up from 2014.

The situation is the same in Viet Nam, when the essential goal is to control inflation, stabilise the macro-economy and strive for a suitable growth rate.

According to analysts, Viet Nam is likely to record an economic growth rate of 5.1 – 5.2 per cent this year, lower than the 5.5 per cent target.

However, the important part was the stability of the economy, laying the foundation for sustainable economic development over the long haul, not the growth rate, they said. — VNS