Experts predict fluctuations in VN-Index
In a positive scenario, experts believe that the VN-Index will experience fluctuations while continuing to test the 1,300-point range next week, supported by the movement of large-cap stocks.
Following a week of gains, the stock market experienced a period of small fluctuations with low liquidity, ending the week with slight declines in both the VN-Index and HNX-Index.
At the close of the week, the VN-Index on the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) settled at 1,283.87 points, while the HNX-Index on the Hà Nội Stock Exchange (HNX) ended at 237.56 points.
Both indices recorded weekly declines, with the VN-Index dropping by 0.11 per cent and the HNX-Index by 1.05 per cent.
The average daily transaction value across the market was VNĐ15.67 trillion (US$627.57 million) per session, a decrease of 11.86 per cent compared to the VNĐ17.78 trillion recorded in the previous week.
Throughout the week, foreign investors extended their net selling streak with a total value of VNĐ796 billion on HoSE. Their selling pressure was concentrated on stocks such as VHM (VNĐ39.6 billion) and HPG (VNĐ206.3 billion). On the other hand, they purchased FPT (VNĐ188 billion) and MWG (VNĐ63.4 billion). Similarly, they also engaged in net selling on the HNX with a total value of VNĐ89 billion, focusing on stocks such as SHS (VNĐ33.6 billion), TNG (VNĐ10.9 billion) and NTP (VNĐ2 billion).
Phan Tấn Nhật, Head of Analysis at Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS), noted that liquidity on both exchanges declined compared to the previous trading week, as investors prepared for the National Day holiday. Specifically, trading volume on HoSE decreased by 9.4 per cent, and on HNX, it dropped by 25 per cent.
According to Nhật, after a week of gains that pushed the VN-Index to the 1,280 to 1,300-point range, the market saw five sessions of narrow-range trading with reduced liquidity around the 1,280-point level. During this time, the market experienced significant sector divergence due to portfolio restructuring across various stocks. However, the VN-Index is now approaching the 1,290 to 1,300-point range, which corresponds to the highest levels reached in August and similar to peaks in March, June and July this year.
Regarding the reduction in trading volume on HoSE compared to the previous week, Nhật suggested that this indicates relatively normal adjustment pressure. The standout feature in the market was the VN30 Index, which rose by 0.78 per cent to 1,331.52 points, approaching the highest peak in June at 1,339 points, within the upper range of 1,345 to 1,350 points in June 2022.
Assessing the short-term trend, Nhật believes the VN-Index will maintain its upward momentum while facing adjustment and portfolio restructuring pressure in the 1,280 to 1,300-point range. This area represents a strong resistance level, following a strong upward movement from the 1,220 to 1,230-point range. Currently, the VN-Index has short-term support at the 1,275-point level, corresponding to the 10-day moving average. Additionally, the short-term trendline is connecting the highest points of 1,306 (peak on 13 June) and 1,297 (on 10 July).
"It is likely that the VN-Index will experience fluctuations and continue to test the 1,300-point level next week, with support from the rotation of large-cap stocks. Alternatively, the market could face adjustment pressure towards the 1,250 to 1,260-point range, corresponding to the highest levels of 2023," Nhật added.
On the other hand, Nhật suggested that the medium-term trend remains positive, with accumulation continuing in the 1,250 to 1,300-point range, potentially extending to 1,320 points. In this scenario, 1,255 points represent the highest level of 2023, while the 1,300 to 1,320-point range is a strong resistance level, encompassing the peak levels of June to August 2022 and the early months of 2024. As a result, the equilibrium point of this accumulation would be around 1,280 points. — VNS
