The exchange rate between the Vietnamese dong and the US dollar will be remained stable in the first half of this year. — Photo antt.vn

HA NOI (Biz Hub) — The State Bank of Viet Nam will not adjust the exchange rate between the Vietnamese dong and the US dollar during the first half of this year (H1).

This has been forecast by Vietcombank Securities Co. (VCBS).

In a report on Viet Nam's February macro-economy released this week, VCBS forecast that the forex market would be continuously stable during H1, attributing it to the country's low inflation during the first two months of this year and also forecast that United States's Fed would not raise interest rate in H1.

It would also help reduce pressure on the devaluation of the dong, VCBS explained.

According to a report from the General Statistics Office, the consumer price index (CPI) in February dropped by 0.05 per cent, compared with January, and 0.25 per cent compared with last December.

VCBS also said that Viet Nam's trade balance had not been affected by the reduction in crude oil prices in the world market as the country's crude oil export value was almost equal to the import value of oil and petrol products.

"Trade deficit, if it does occur in the future, will be insignificant and will not affect the exchange rate strongly as the main motivation for the country's growth during the next few months is expected to come mainly from exporters, especially foreign direct investment firms," VCBS said.

Besides, VCBS also expects Viet Nam's foreign currency supply source to be stable with disbursed FDI capital touching US$1.2 billion in the first two months of this year, up 7.1 per cent year-on-year.

Viet Nam's remittance is also expected to continue growing this year. The remittance is currently pegged at more than $35 billion, equivalent to 12 weeks of imports.

The forex market was continuously stable in February, with the inter-bank rate maintained at VND21,458 per dollar. Commercial banks in the month listed the rate at VND21,355 to 21,385. — VNS