There was a low possibility of an upgradation for the Vietnamese market in FTSE's review. — Photo baodauthau.vn
The market is unlikely to make strong gains this week as investors are cautious ahead of the FTSE's review results, scheduled for release on September 26.
The VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) dropped 0.68 per cent to close Friday at 990.36 points.
After five trading days, the VN-Index went up 0.32 per cent from the previous week.
On the Ha Noi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index inched up 0.10 per cent to end at 104.14 points.
After one week, the HNX-Index added nearly 1.9 per cent from the previous trading week.
Average trading volume on the two exchanges last week reached 230 million shares each day, worth VND5 trillion (US$215 million).
According to Bao Viet Securities Company, Viet Nam’s chance for reclassification in FTSE’s review of country classification is assessed as low as no market structural change has been made since September 2018.
Ngo Quoc Hung, professional senior market researcher, Market Strategy Division, MBS Securities told news site tinnhanhchungkhoan.vn there was a low possibility of an upgradation for the Vietnamese market this time. Investors are also still waiting for a push from the relaxation of foreign ownership.
Hung forecast the market might continue to move up this week in a narrow margin.
Although the VN-Index was pushed back to 990 points on Friday as stocks were hit strongly on the last day exchange-traded funds (ETFs) completed reviewing their portfolios, the short-term uptrend of the market might not be interrupted, Hung said.
The wave of interest rate cuts by central banks around the world had helped reduce concerns about an economic downturn, he said.
“During the past several months, the world stock market has continuously fluctuated and been dependent on the developments on US-China trade war and investors were gradually getting used to this instability. Therefore, the uptrend of the market in the coming week may still continue,” Hung said.
According to Nguyen The Minh, head of analysis at Yuanta Securities Vietnam Co, Viet Nam can hardly be considered for upgrading in FTSE restructuring this time.
“However, the hope for upgradation was still a supporting factor for the stock market as we still have large growth opportunities,” Minh said.
“Not to mention the upgrade, the US Federal Reserve (FED)'s interest rate reduction showed us that cash flows were gradually returning to the emerging markets and frontier markets, especially countries with high GDP growth rates like Viet Nam.”
“Therefore, in a positive scenario, Viet Nam’s reclassification as an emerging market can strongly support market’s trend in the meantime,” Minh said.
Nguyen Trung Du, Director of the Business Development Section at VNDirect Securities Co., said if Viet Nam was upgraded to emerging market status by FTSE, the local stock market would further attract international investment flows.
Viet Nam had stable macro-economy, Du said, but adding the Vietnamese market had only partially met requirements from the international funds, therefore, the upgrade plans still needed a lot of effort.
Du said the short-term trend of the market was quite positive with indices rising at a slow pace and wide divergence.
“This is still a positive sign in the current context when the international financial market is very unstable,” Du said.
Bao Viet Securities Company's daily report says the market is forecast to face correcting pressure early this week and recover toward the weekend.
"The index may drop to support zone 978-983 points in the short term due to the selling pressure. We expect that the index will recover from this zone.
“After ETFs’ review session, net selling pressure from foreign investors may decline significantly. Some net buying sessions are expected from foreign investors next week,” the company said. — VNS