Positive momentum expected to help VN-Index surpass 1,300 points in 2024: experts
After a volatile trading week, the stock market continued to decline on Monday. However, demand picked up in later sessions, focusing on large-cap stocks as liquidity recovered. Consequently, both the VN-Index and HNX-Index ended higher than the previous week.
Following a turbulent trading week, the stock market experienced another week of downward momentum on Monday.
But demand improved in subsequent sessions, concentrating on large-cap stocks as liquidity began to recover. As a result, both the VN-Index and HNX-Index posted gains compared to the previous week.
On the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), the VN-Index closed the week at 1,272.04 points, while the HNX-Index on the Hà Nội Stock Exchange (HNX) ended at 234.3 points.
Both indices saw weekly increases, with the VN-Index rising by 1.62 per cent and the HNX-Index climbing by 0.81 per cent.
Discussing market performance during the week, Phan Tấn Nhật, Head of Market Analysis at Saigon-Hanoi Securities (SHS), noted that liquidity improved on both exchanges. Trading volumes on HoSE rose by 26.36 per cent, while HNX saw an 11.82 per cent increase, although both remained below the 20-week average.
Foreign investors returned to net buying, purchasing a total of VNĐ1.22 trillion on HoSE, with a focus on SSI (VNĐ666 billion), FPT (VNĐ363 billion), and TCB (VNĐ274 billion). Similarly, they net bought VNĐ71 billion on HNX, mainly in PVS (VNĐ54 billion), HUT (VNĐ15 billion), and PVI (VNĐ13 billion).
On 20 September, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) held a conference to discuss banking credit solutions to support businesses and individuals affected by Typhoon Yagi.
The SBV announced plans to report to the Prime Minister on asset classification, provisioning methods, and the use of provisions to assist customers affected by the typhoon. They also directed credit institutions to restructure loan terms, maintain debt categories, and consider interest rate reductions.
Technically, Phan Tấn Nhật observed that the VN-Index experienced a correction towards the 1,250-point level, with low liquidity indicating relatively weak selling pressure. However, positive market news, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut, boosted the VN-Index by 1.62 per cent during the week, pushing it to 1,272 points, surpassing the year's previous high of 1,255 points. Nevertheless, the VN-Index now faces significant resistance at the 1,290-1,300 point range.
Nhật said: "In the short term, the VN-Index appears to have tested the support level around 1,250 points, with increasing trading volumes. The index is expected to gain momentum, with support around 1,270 points and a likely attempt to test the 1,280-1,300 point range.
"Current market trends suggest improving demand and short-term capital flows, creating opportunities for short-term gains, particularly for stocks that have yet to recover fully."
In the medium term, Nhật noted that the VN-Index was likely to accumulate in the 1,250-1,300 point range, with the potential to extend to 1,320 points. However, he cautioned that breaking through resistance levels would require strong macroeconomic support and robust corporate earnings, particularly from large-cap stocks and the banking sector.
From a fundamental perspective, Đinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macroeconomics and Market Strategy at VNDIRECT Securities, highlighted the recent Fed interest rate cut. He pointed out that this would have a significant impact on the global financial market and Việt Nam’s stock market.
Hinh explained that the Fed had officially begun its monetary easing policy, cutting interest rates by 0.5 percentage points - an aggressive move that had been anticipated by the market.
While this decision sparked debate, with some expecting a more moderate 0.25 percentage point cut, Hinh remains optimistic about the market’s prospects.
He predicted that the VN-Index could surpass 1,300 points this year, supported by looser monetary policy and improving corporate earnings. Additionally, ongoing efforts to upgrade Việt Nam’s market classification would further enhance the market outlook.
As a result, any market corrections in the coming months would provide a favourable opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate shares, particularly in sectors with strong growth potential for the remainder of the year. — VNS
