Markets forecast to get boost from supportive information

Monday, Dec 30, 2019 07:21

Customers at the Bank for Investment and Development (BID) in Hà Nội. BID recorded an impressive increase of over 8 per cent and contributed more than 4 points to the rise of the VN-Index last week. — Photo the courtesy of BID

Shares are forecast to advance this week thanks to the stable macro-economy and positive development of the world socio-economic situation.

The VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange increased 0.51 per cent to close the last trading week of 2019 at 963.51 points.

The southern market index had gained 0.74 per cent last week.

An average of 232.2 million shares were traded on the southern market last week, worth VND4.2 trillion (US$1.8 million).

On the Ha Noi Stock Exchange, the HNX-Index edged up 0.27 per cent to end last Friday at 102.60 points.

The northern market index had climbed 0.18 per cent last week.

According to Tran Xuan Bach, a stock analyst at Bao Viet Securities Co, the market is forecast to increase this week.

“The VN-Index will possibly approach the next resistance zone of 969-972 points. However, the index may experience volatility and corrections early this week toward the 960-961 point support zone, before touching the resistance zone. The market will continuously experience a wild divergence among stock sectors,” Bach said.

"We expect that the market will soon receive support from foreign cash flow during early sessions of the year," he added.

Positive factors at home and abroad, together with the stable growth of the economy would help the stock market increase.

According to the General Statistics Office, GDP in 2019 achieved an impressive growth rate of 7.02 per cent, exceeding the National Assembly's target of 6.6-6.8. This year's growth rate is lower than 2018 (7.08 per cent) but higher than 2011-2017.

Total investments are expected to increase by about 13 per cent, with a slight improvement of the disbursement of public investment while investment from the private sector and FDI is expected to remain at the same level as 2019.

“We forecast that GDP growth rate in 2020 may be slightly lower than in 2019 but remain at a stable level,” said Khieu Trong Huy, a stock analyst at Bao Viet Securities Co.

The US and China have agreed on the terms of a Phase 1 trade agreement, which reduces some US tariffs on Chinese goods, while promoting China’s purchase of US agricultural produce, energy and manufactured commodities.

Investors expect the US and China soon signing Phase 1 of their trade deal would add momentum to the stock market heading into 2020.

The strongest gainers of last week were Bank for Investment and Development (BID), Vietcombank (VCB) and Masan Group (MSN). BID recorded an impressive increase of over 8 per cent and contributed more than 4 points to the rise of the VN-Index.

Most banking stocks traded positively, such as Techcombank (TCB), Vietinbank (CTG), HDBank (HDB) and VPBank (VPB).

Real estate also performed well, with gainers Nam Long Investment Corporation (NLG), Khang Dien House Trading and Investment JSC (KDH), Novaland Group (NVL), Phat Dat Real Estate Development JSC (PDR) and Dat Xanh Real Estate Service and Construction Corp (DXG).

Food and beverage stocks were the worst performers last week, with Sabeco (SAB), Vinamilk (VNM), GTNFood JSC (GTN) and Vinacafe Bien Hoa Corporation (VCF) all plummeting.

According to stock analyst Bach, this week, stock exposure should be maintained at 30-40 per cent of the portfolio.

After opening buying positions at the 946-951 point support zone, investors may consider selling part of the portfolio at the 969-972 point resistance zone.

If the market successfully penetrates through the resistance zone, investors may raise stock exposure at market corrections. They should consider the stock groups of real estate, retails, steel, oil and technology, Bach said. — VNS


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