Market to experience fluctuations as it seeks to assess supply and demand

Monday, Nov 20, 2023 09:44

Two traders at the trading floor of DSC Securities Co in Hà Nội. — VNA/VNS Photo

The market is anticipated to experience fluctuations within the range of 1,095 to 1,115 points as it seeks to assess and balance the dynamics of supply and demand.

The market benchmark VN-Index on the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) closed Friday at 1,101.19 points, suffering a severe decline of 2.16 per cent.

"The market continued to retreat around 1,130 points and fell again. The sharp fall caused the VN-Index to return below the MA line (200), area 1,115 points. Liquidity increased compared to previous sessions, indicating that supply continued to exert pressure despite the market's decline," said Việt Dragon Securities Co.

"It is expected that the market will fluctuate in the area of 1,095-1,115 points in the near future as cash is flowing in to buy stocks at low prices."

"However, the current bearish signal may have a negative impact on the overall market trend, and the MA(200) area will become a resistance area. Therefore, investors need to watch the supply and demand developments in the coming period to evaluate the market condition."

"For now, investors should take advantage of the market rally to take profits and structure their portfolios to minimise risk," it said.

The macro-economic situation is displaying a notable trend of improvement, particularly with a significant decrease in the domestic exchange rate, coinciding with market experts' beliefs that the Federal Reserve will halt its interest rate hikes, said Đinh Quang Hinh, head of the Macro and Market Strategy Department of VNDirect.

Besides, various indicators have indicated a recovery in Việt Nam's growth, highlighted by consecutive months of positive export growth.

"Industry-related indicators and foreign direct investment (FDI) capital flows also demonstrate positive trends. Given this context, it is expected that the fourth-quarter business results of listed companies will exhibit a positive recovery, serving as a driving force for the stock market leading up to the Lunar New Year," Hinh told Việt Nam News.

"Consequently, investors can leverage market corrections within the upward trend to increase their stock holdings, focusing on industry groups poised for positive business results in the fourth quarter, such as the export sector (including steel, wooden furniture, and textiles), public investment, industrial park, real estate, and securities," he said.

MBS experts anticipate the continuation of strong pressure early this week, emphasising the significance of the support zone at 1,079 points. If the VN-Index dips below the 1,079 area and subsequently recovers, it may signal the end of the short-term correction and the market's entry into a new balance zone.

"In the event of a market recovery and price increase, MBS predicts that the index could climb to around 1,180 points in the upcoming weeks. However, this upward process is expected to encounter resistance and undergo short-term corrections. The market will require additional time to accumulate strength and surpass higher thresholds."

Considering investment strategies at this juncture, MBS experts recommend that investors who have achieved satisfactory results reduce their margin and sell 30-40 per cent of their portfolio, awaiting the next market signal. — VNS

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