Market may enter a corrective phase this week: experts

Monday, Aug 23, 2021 08:04

Investors looking at a trading board inside the HoSE's building in HCM City. — VNA/VNS Photo

The market fluctuated strongly last week, especially in the last two sessions. The liquidity reached a historical high on Friday, while foreign investors also recorded strong net selling last week. Analysts from securities firms expect that cash flows might fall significantly this week, causing investors to be more cautious.

On the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE), the market benchmark VN-Index closed the last trading session at 1,329.43 points, down 2.03 per cent. The HNX-Index on the Ha Noi Stock Exchange (HNX) dropped 2.31 per cent to 338.06 points.

For the week, the VN-Index lost more than 3 per cent, while the HNX-Index climbed slightly 0.3 per cent.

The liquidity on both exchanges was higher than the previous week and continued to soar above the recent 20-week average, with an average of VND33.3 trillion (US$1.46 billion) per session.

Of which, the trading value on HOSE increased by 18.7 per cent to VND141.42 trillion, equivalent to a rise of 14.2 per cent in trading volume to 4.219 billion shares. On the northern bourse, the trading value jumped 31.3 per cent to VND25.07 trillion, equivalent to a trading volume of 971 million shares, up 21.8 per cent.

Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) said that after successfully surpassing 1,370 points in last Monday's trade, the index mostly fluctuated in a narrow range and hovered around 1,360 points in the next two sessions.

It recorded an unexpected gain on Thursday before falling steeply on the last trading day, with profit-taking activities dominating the entire trading period.

The market liquidity also increased slightly compared to last week, showing investors' desire to exit the market amid complicated developments of the COVID-19 outbreaks in Viet Nam. However, cash flow may drop significantly this week as investors become more cautious.

At the moment, the 1,300 point-level is still acting as a support level for the index's accumulation trend, the securities firm added.

Investors’ sentiment was also weighed by expectations that global economic growth is slowing down, while the VN-Index continuously failed to break the resistance level of 1,380 points.

Therefore, VCBS recommends investors prioritise short-term profit-taking on stocks that have met their profit expectations to preserve the gains from recent rallies, and observe market movements in the coming sessions before disbursing again.

According to MB Securities JSC (MBS), the stock market's correction in the last trading session was not a shock after the benchmark failed to surpass the short-term peak of 1,375 points, but the losses were bigger than expected.

The sharp fall has taken away all achievements in the previous two weeks. The positive point is that the market can attract cash flows to make bottom-purchases, which helps cap the losses.

Technical indicators have little effect on psychological sessions like last Friday's trade, so MBS suggests investors should prioritise risk management, cut margin trading, not dollar-cost averaging, and reduce stock proportions to balance or low.

Meanwhile, experts from Saigon-Hanoi Securities JSC (SHS) said that after rising for three consecutive weeks, the VN-Index corrected again last week.

Notably, the market liquidity in the past week continued to increase, especially in the last session of which the matching liquidity on the two exchanges reached a new record high, showing last week’s selling pressure was really strong.

On a technical front, the VN-Index ended the recovering wave to enter a correcting wave. At the end of this correction, the market will return to an attractive price range to accumulate stocks in the middle and long term.

SHS forecasts that the market is likely to continue to correct this week to lower ranges, with the next support zone of 1,200 - 1,250 points.

It also recommends investors, who have already taken profit from short-term portfolios, can watch corrections to the support zone of 1,200 - 1,250 points to redisburse. Meanwhile, investors with big stock proportions shouldn’t sell-off in the corrective session, but wait for technical recovery sessions to reduce proportions.

The market’s correction affected all stock groups with oil and gas stocks posting the biggest losses in market capitalisation, down 6 per cent. The group’s pillar stocks recorded big falls like Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical Company Limited (BSR) down 7.3 per cent, PetroVietnam Drilling & Well Services Corporation (PVD) down 6.2 per cent and PetroVietnam Technical Services Corporation (PVS) down 4.6 per cent.

It was followed by utilities and banking group, down 4 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively, in market capitalisation.

On the other hand, foreign investors posted the biggest net sell value in 11 weeks, with a total net value of over VND5.4 trillion, equivalent to a trading volume of 105.4 million shares.

On HoSE, foreign investors net sold up to nearly VND5.7 trillion last week, 2.6 times higher than the previous week and also the biggest net sell value in 11 weeks. — VNS

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