Market expected to perform positively on Biden's visit

Monday, Sep 11, 2023 07:07

Bảo Việt Securities' employee talks to an investor at its office in Hà Nội. — VNA/VNS Photo

The Vietnamese stock market was dynamic in the first trading week of September, thanks to positive macroeconomic news.

Indices and liquidity were on the up trend, with the average liquidity per session even reaching over US$1.1 billion. The market is expected to welcome more bullish news this week, said experts.

Last week, the VN-Index on the Hồ Chí Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) closed Friday at 1,241.48 points, a slight decrease of 0.13 per cent, while the HNX-Index on the Hà Nội Stock Exchange (HNX) traded at 256.2 points, an increase of 0.02 per cent.

For the week, both indices posted a weekly gain, with the former up 1.4 per cent and the latter rose 2.6 per cent.

After the National Day holiday, liquidity recovered strongly. Particularly, the average transaction value of the entire market reached over VNĐ27.68 trillion ($1.1 billion), up 19.6 per cent over the previous week.

Meanwhile, foreign investors net sold VNĐ843 billion on HOSE while net bought VNĐ109 billion on HNX.

Saigon - Hanoi Securities Joint Stock Company (SHS) said that the stock market in early September received many positive news such as information such as the purchasing managers index (PMI) of the manufacturing industry rebounded to above the threshold of 50 points after six months in August, and the State Securities Commission (SSC) held a meeting on solutions to upgrade the stock market and clearing and settlement activities for securities transactions on September 7.

In addition, the Ministry of Finance did not approve the proposal to support Vietnamese people with $1,000 when buying electric cars, while the number of new accounts is continuously at a high level, with more than 150,000 new investment accounts joining the market in August.

The information had a strong impact on the stock market last week.

Đinh Quang Hinh, Head of the Macro and Market Strategy Department, VNDirect Securities Company, said that thanks to the rallies before and after the long holiday, the VN-Index is entering the old peak area of ​​1,240 - 1,250 points.

This week, the market may receive some supportive news related to US President Joe Biden's visit to Việt Nam, Hinh added.

“Statistics showed that that during previous US President visits to Việt Nam, the stock market often performed quite positively. This is due to expectations of the improvement in trade between the US and Việt Nam after each visit," Hinh said.

The US is currently one of Việt Nam’s largest trading partners, and is the top export market of Việt Nam to exceed the threshold of $100 billion.

Two-way export turnover between the two countries has increased more than 140 times, from $451 million in 1995 to over $130 billion in 2022.

According to Hinh, during this visit, many American businesses, such as Boeing, Google, Walmart, will accompany and look for investment opportunities in Việt Nam.

This will support cash flows in the stock market, especially in industry groups such as industrial park real estate and industries with a high export proportion to the US market such as seafood, wooden furniture, and construction materials.

The market, however, is still under pressure related to exchange rate issues. Amid rising exchange rates due to the return of inflationary pressure in the last months of the year, the State Bank's monetary policy room may be significantly narrowed.

Besides, the price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of the VN-Index has now reached 14.8 times, no longer as cheap as at the beginning of the year.

SHS said that the macroeconomic situation has not witnessed positive changes, but it is not deteriorating, while the global geopolitical situation remains uncertain, low global economic growth causes falls in order, and inflation is persistent due to rising energy and food prices.

However, the positive point is that Việt Nam’s interest rates are easing and the Government also actively provides solutions to tackle difficulties in the corporate bond and real estate markets.

The VN-Index is facing a short-term resistance threshold of 1,250 points and it will need more time to form a new accumulation zone, preparing for the possibility of moving towards the strong mid-term resistance threshold of 1,300 points, SHS added. — VNS

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