Macro data in focus, market likely to extend rallies this week

Monday, Oct 17, 2022 07:06

Investors at the headquarters of the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE). — VNA/VNS Photo

The Vietnamese stock market experienced a bumpy week but was still headed for its first weekly gain after five losses. However, experts warn that investors should pay attention to macro data until the pressure on exchange rates and interest rates shows signs of cooling down.

Last week, the VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) finished the week at 1,061.85 points, claiming back all losses sustained last Tuesday. On the Ha Noi Stock Exchange (HNX), the HNX-Index ended the last trading session at 227.89 points.

For the week, the benchmark index rose 2.5 per cent, while the HNX-Index gained 0.8 per cent.

Trading value on HOSE increased by 2.8 per cent from the previous week to nearly VND62.8 trillion (US$2.6 billion), equivalent to a rise of 3.2 per cent in a trading volume to over 2.9 billion shares.

In contrast, the northern market's trading value and volume fell by 11.4 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively.

Last week, foreign investors reentered the market and poured money into both of the major exchanges, with a net buying value of VND2.85 trillion. Of which, Hoa Phat Group (HPG)’s shares were purchased the most, with 12 million shares, followed by SSI Securities Corporation (SSI) and Sahabank (SHB) with 9.3 million shares and 8 million shares, respectively.

In the September minutes, the US Federal Reserve expressed concern about rising inflation, and now with a higher-than-expected consumer price index, the global market is betting on another rate hike of 75 basis points by the Fed next month, according to Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS).

As a result, interest rates tend to get higher, extending the trend of revaluation of risky assets, including equity markets.

VCBS, thereby, recommended investors prioritise a prudent strategy during this period.

Saigon-Hanoi Securities JSC (SHS) reported that on October 11, the market successfully tested the strong psychological support level of roughly 1,000 points after five straight weeks of falls. The recovery sessions helped lift investors' sentiment.

Last week’s liquidity was at around the 20-week average, showing that bottom-fishing demand has appeared and the cash flows are showing signs of returning to the market.

The steep short-term downturn that the VN-Index had been in since the introduction of the T+2 settlement cycle has ceased, and a new support range of 1,000-1,030 points has been established.

However, the medium-term trend of the index hadn’t improved yet, said SHS.

This week, the securities firm anticipated that the market benchmark would continue to recover to upper resistance zones. It also suggested investors reduce the proportion of weak-performing stocks and balance their portfolios when short-term selling pressure gets stronger at the resistance area of around 1,100 points.

The company added that investors should maintain a reasonable proportion of stocks.

According to MB Securities JSC (MBS), after three consecutive gaining sessions, the market is creating an equilibrium environment and a short-term bottom at the psychological threshold of 1,000 points.

In the current rally inertia, the market is likely to continue the recovering trend if the VN-Index surpasses the upper limit of the GAP down at 1,073 points. — VNS

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