Hopes are high for many sectors, spurring VN-Index
The VN-Index is expected to continue its bullish trend thanks to the brighter outlook of many sectors in the last six months of 2023, driven by monetary and fiscal policies.
The VN-Index is expected to continue its bullish trend thanks to the brighter outlook of many sectors in the last six months of 2023, driven by monetary and fiscal policies.
Trần Trương Mạnh Hiếu, Head of the Strategy Analysis Department of KIS Securities Vietnam noted that the stock market has moved in a sideways fashion over the first half of 2023 due to the economic downturn and the VN-Index fluctuated in the range of 1,000 - 1,120 points. In the second half of 2023, VN-Index may form an uptrend thanks to the prospects of economic recovery.
GDP growth in the second quarter of 2023 reached 4.14 per cent, higher than the rate of 3.32 per cent in the first quarter. The recovery of the tourism industry is also a bright spot, with the number of international tourists arriving in Việt Nam in the first six months reaching nearly 5.6 million people, more than 13 times the same period last year, Hiếu said.
It is expected that the reopening of China will make the number of Chinese visitors to Việt Nam increase sharply in the second half of this year. According to the General Statistics Office, by the end of June 2023, investment capital sourced from the state budget increased by 20 per cent compared to the same period last year. It is forecast that public investment disbursement will accelerate, creating a great driving force for economic growth.
According to Nguyễn Thị Hằng Nga, Deputy General Director of Vietcombank Fund Management Company (VCBF), favourable macroeconomic conditions will broadly persist as monetary and fiscal policies such as reducing interest rates and VAT will support consumption and investment demand, both of which have been severely affected by declining exports and high rates.
Public investment and tourism will be important drivers of economic growth this year.
In the stock market, lower deposit interest rates help increase the attractiveness of the stock investment channel. However, investors should not underestimate the risks such as declining exports and corporate profits and unstable investor sentiment.
“We are consistent with our investment strategy in construction stocks, information technology, and pharmaceuticals, specifically in companies that can maintain revenue and profit growth even in economic headwinds,” she said.
“We also see opportunities in companies with poor results, but whose share prices have fallen sharply and thus become attractive, such as some in the real estate sector and in consumer goods.”
“Many bank stocks are attractively priced but the risk of asset quality deterioration is not high thanks to the positive signs in the macro-economy, falling interest rates and the government's efforts to remove regulatory obstacles for real estate projects,” she said.
The auto business market in the first half of this year was affected by many unfavourable factors such as inflation, high interest rates, and reduced consumer demand, according to Đỗ Tiến Dũng, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Hàng Xanh Auto Service Joint Stock Company (Haxaco).
Haxaco recorded a decline in business results, with profits of just VNĐ10.4 billion in the first quarter and just VNĐ10 billion in the second quarter, a sharp decrease compared to the same periods last year.
The automobile market showed signs of recovery recently as the Government issued Decree 41/2023/NĐ-CP, reducing registration fees on new cars by 50 per cent in the last six months of 2023 for domestically manufactured and assembled vehicles.
Haxaco has seen more customers since the beginning of July thanks to this stimulus.
However, in the last six months of 2023, the distribution of imported cars is expected to be more difficult than domestically manufactured and assembled cars. Completing this year's business plan would be a challenge for Haxaco, he said.
GDP growth at a low rate in the second half of 2023 poses many challenges for the year-end period, according to Trần Lê Nguyên, General Director of Kido Group Joint Stock Company.
In the next five years, Kido will change the proportion of business segments based on consumer needs and trends.
The company is focusing on spices, fish sauce, seasoning powder and some other items, combined with the existing channel of the oil industry to expand its business.
The spice industry is expected to make a larger contribution to the total revenue, making it easier to develop more channels and reach wider consumers. Besides, Kido is planning to launch some dry cakes too.
Recently, Kido acquired 25 per cent of the Thọ Phát dumpling brand, aiming to increase the ownership rate to 51 per cent and soon to 70 per cent. In the near future, the company will accelerate the expansion of the dumpling and moon cake industry
“We are working hard to fulfil our 2023 target of VNĐ15 trillion in revenue and VNĐ900 billion in pre-tax profit, an increase of nearly 20 per cent and more than 76 per cent respectively compared to 2022,” Nguyên said.
Based on a Euromonitor report, with a population of 100 million, of which 70 per cent are under the age of 35 and tech-savvy, Việt Nam will see higher demand in a wide range of products, from consumer electronics to home appliances, according to Nguyễn Việt Anh, Deputy General Director of JSC FPT Digital Retail.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the value of the retail market in Việt Nam is expected to reach US$350 billion by 2025. — VNS
